Description of Research Project: Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements
Some colleagues and I are engaged in a long-term research project in which we are seeking to evaluate the effectiveness of a large number of International Environmental Agreements (IEAs). Assessing the effectiveness of these IEAs is an important task from a practical perspective, since (i) so-called “second and third generation” environmental problems are characterized by regional or global environmental consequences, and (ii) the international community has responded to these problems by creating more than 100 IEAs. Assessing the effectiveness of IEAs is also important from a scholarly perspective in that such assessments allow us to test hypotheses about the design of institutions, the implementation of policy tools, and the behavior of nations in the international arena.
In order to realize the practical and scholarly benefits described above, we have developed a theoretical framework predicting the likely effectiveness of IEAs as a function of (i) the institutional characteristics of the IEAs, (ii) the characteristics of the target population, (iii) the characteristics of nation states, and (iv) the characteristics of the environmental problems being addressed.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> I am seeking your assistance as an environmental scientist in helping us assess the characteristics of various environmental problems. Specifically, the attached survey asks you to rank various environmental problems on a seven point scale from low (1) to high (7) on the extent to which these problems are characterized by complexity and scientific uncertainty.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> In addition, we ask you to adjust for regional differences with these environmental problems, and rank your professional expertise in each area. Each of these characteristics is described in detail below.style="mso-spacerun: yes">
Problem Complexity
The characteristic of problem complexity refers to underlying causal processes generating the environmental problem. For our purposes, problem complexity has two dimensions:
style='font-family:Symbol'>· The number of causes/sources of the environmental problem. By sources or causes of environmental problems, we mean the physical, chemical, biological, or behavioral processes that produce these problems. By contrast, when we speak of the sources of causes of environmental problems, we do not mean the physical entities responsible for the environmental problems.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> To give an example, the vast majority of atmospheric sulfur dioxide pollution comes from the combustion of coal in power plants and smelters. Thus, there are few causes/sources of this environmental problem, regardless of whether there are 100 or 100,000,000 power plants and smelters releasing sulfur dioxide. Some environmental problems stem from a small number of sources or causes; e.g., most oil pollution at sea comes from one of two causes (marine transport and offshore production). Other environmental problems have a large number of sources or causes; e.g., non-point source water pollution. Environmental problems with a large number of sources or causes are more complex than those with a small number of sources or causes.
style='font-family:Symbol'>· The length of the causal chain from cause to effect. style='font-weight:normal'>Short causal chains between cause and effect make it easier to understand environmental problems, easier to design interventions to address these problems, and easier to evaluate the success of these interventions. Some environmental problems have short causal chains; e.g., the relationship between herbicide spills and fish kills in a river. Other environmental problems have longer causal chains; e.g., the relationship between CFC emissions and stratospheric ozone depletion.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Environmental problems with long causal chains are more complex than those with shorter causal chains.
Problem Uncertainty
The characteristic of problem uncertainty refers to scientific/expert uncertainty regarding the causes style='font-weight:normal;font-style:normal'>of environmental problems and/or the severity of environmental problems. For our purposes, problem uncertainty has two dimensions:
style='font-family:Symbol'>· Theoretical uncertainty. Theoretical uncertainty refers to uncertainty regarding the causes, effects, and causal processes underlying environmental problems. Some environmental problems have low levels of theoretical uncertainty; e.g., we understand quite well the causes of acid deposition and the processes by which SO2 and NOx are transformed into sulfuric and nitric acid in the atmosphere. We also understand quite well the rather complex process by which CFCs degrade stratospheric O3. Some environmental problems have high levels of theoretical complexity; e.g., we do not understand well interactions that take place between multiple chemical contaminants and the processes by which these interactions increase or decrease the toxicity of the chemicals.
style='font-family:Symbol'>· Empirical Uncertainty. Empirical uncertainty refers to uncertainty regarding the magnitude or severity of the environmental problem. Some environmental problems have relatively low levels of empirical uncertainty; e.g., the human health risks posed by lead exposure in the U.S. Other environmental problems have high levels of empirical uncertainty; e.g., the rate of extinction for many endangered species, the magnitude of sea level rise associated with climate change.style="mso-spacerun: yes">
Regional Differences Adjustment: Because there may be regional differences in the # of Causes, Causal Chain, and the Theoretical & Empirical Uncertainty of a problem, we have allotted for a short sub-section in each section that allows for a regional adjustment. Please give each region on a scale of -x to +x that indicates how each environmental category should be adjusted for a particular region. A score of -3 would indicate that we should subtract 3 from the problem scores above, making a problem less uncertain, less complex, or have less causes. A score of +3 would indicate that a problem is more uncertain, more complex, or have more causes.
Professional Expertise:style='font-weight:normal'> We realize that your expertise may vary among different environmental problems. Thus, the last column asks for your professional expertise in each area. A score of 1 would be a low level of expertise, while a score of 7 would represent a high level of professional expertise. style='mso-special-character:line-break;page-break-before:always'>
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