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DOOR 1: I LEAN REPUBLICAN
 
 
Pretend you are a political operative, free of ideology, selling your advice. Based on the campaign so far, and the first debate if you saw it, what advice would you give the two candidates as the election approaches? (No fair giving bad advice to the guy you don't support; this is a test of your raw political judgment.) Choose as many as applicable.

Obama should:
 
Open up emotionally. His "cool" is being perceived as "cold."
 
Speak out directly -- or have surrogates speak out directly -- about Palin, painting her as manifestly unready to serve.
 
Move rightward: Take some position that counters the charge that he is the Senate's most liberal member.
 
Actually embrace "liberalism." In these economic times, it will not hurt to wear the mantle of FDR.
 
Go more negative in general. Obama may be courtly, but he is being perceived as namby-pamby.
 
Confront directly -- or have surrogates confront directly -- McCain's seemingly impulsive or erratic decision-making.
 
Respond forcefully when McCain paints him as naive.
 
I don't think Obama should change anything. He's doing about as well as he can.

 
 
 
McCain should:
 
Go more negative; there is a general undercurrent of nervousness about Obama's very thin resume, even among some of his supporters. McCain should more directly address that, because he wins in any comparison.
 
Try to reshape the election more in terms of Iraq and the threat of terrorism on our shores. McCain looks both politically courageous and prescient on the success of the surge and this is a strong argument against Obama, who opposed it from the start, and whose pledge to end the war quickly does sound to many like a capitulation to defeat.
 
Better exploit Obama's liberalism; in the public mind, liberalism is synonymous with tax-and-spend economies and failed social policies, and Obama is unambiguously liberal.
 
Directly address and thus nullify the criticism that he is "impulsive" by turning it around: The times call for bold strokes by bold people.
 
Allow Palin to step down for family reasons, and replace her with a seasoned pro. She is a disaster waiting to happen.
 
Keep Palin under wraps as much as possible, and never let her go unscripted, the way Bush I did with Quayle.
 
Use Palin more publicly; she is a quick study and and she is a powerful and likeable presence; the more the media attacks her, the more unfair it will be perceived.
 
I don't think McCain should change anything. He's doing about as well as he can.

 
 
 
How much of a factor, if any, do you think race will play in this election?
 
I think it will ultimately decide the election.
 
I think it will matter a lot.
 
I think it will matter a little.
 
I don't think it will matter at all.
 
 
 
If you saw the debate, who do you think won? (Please do not answer if you didn't watch all or most of the debate.)
 
Obama won by a lot.
 
Obama won by a little.
 
McCain won by a little.
 
McCain won by a lot.
 
Neither won. A draw.
 
 
 
Who do you think will win the election, and how sure are you?
 
Obama. I am pretty sure.
 
Obama, but I'm not sure at all.
 
Could go either way.
 
McCain, but I'm not sure at all.
 
McCain. I'm pretty sure.
 
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