{"id":732398,"date":"2022-05-25T19:44:25","date_gmt":"2022-05-26T02:44:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.questionpro.com\/blog\/tahmine-dayali-analiz-gelecegin-bilgisi\/"},"modified":"2022-05-25T19:44:25","modified_gmt":"2022-05-25T19:44:25","slug":"tahmine-dayali-analiz-gelecegin-bilgisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.questionpro.com\/blog\/tr\/tahmine-dayali-analiz-gelecegin-bilgisi\/","title":{"rendered":"Tahmine Dayal\u0131 Analiz: Gelece\u011fin Bilgisi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Her neslin bir okuryazarl\u0131k dili oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenir; e\u011fer bunu biliyorsan\u0131z, o \u00e7a\u011f\u0131n okuryazar\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z; sava\u015f i\u00e7inde bir hayat ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z karanl\u0131k \u00e7a\u011flarda, bunu iyi bilen insanlar general ve kral oldular. Sanayi \u00e7a\u011f\u0131na girildi\u011finde, makinelerden anlayan insanlar end\u00fcstriler kurdular. Tahmine dayal\u0131 analiz ne kadar do\u011fru olabilir?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bug\u00fcn okuryazarl\u0131k dilinin teknoloji oldu\u011fu bir \u00e7a\u011fda ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Teknolojiden anlayan insanlar kaliteli veriye \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek de\u011fer bi\u00e7iyor ve bu da verinin temel varl\u0131klardan biri haline gelmesine neden oluyor. \u015eimdi \u015fu soru ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: \u0130nsanlar verilerle ne yap\u0131yor? Peki ya size bununla gelece\u011fi g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini s\u00f6ylesem?  <\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Tahmine dayal\u0131 analiz nedir?<\/h2>\n<p>Tahmine dayal\u0131 analiz, gelecekteki olaylar\u0131 veya davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tahmin etmek i\u00e7in verileri kullanan bir metodolojidir. Bu t\u00fcr bir analiz, aralar\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131 belirlemek ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda bilgi edinmek i\u00e7in ge\u00e7mi\u015f senaryolar\u0131 ve kal\u0131plar\u0131 inceler. Bu verilerle ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, benzer davran\u0131\u015f kal\u0131plar\u0131nda daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6zlemlenen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 tahmin edebilir ve istenen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 elde etmek i\u00e7in senaryolar\u0131 manip\u00fcle edebilir.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kestirimci analitik, kelime anlam\u0131ndan da anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, gelecekteki bilinmeyen olaylar\u0131 tahmin eder. Ama\u00e7, gelecekte ne olaca\u011f\u0131na dair daha iyi bir yarg\u0131ya varmak i\u00e7in ne oldu\u011funu bilmenin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7mektir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fi analiz etmek ve gelece\u011fi tahmin etmek i\u00e7in makine \u00f6\u011frenimi, istatistik, veri modelleme ve madencilik tekniklerinden yararlan\u0131r.  <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predictive Analytics bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in karar verme kolu. Reklam, Pazarlama, Finans, E-ticaret, Sigorta, \u00dcretim, Perakende, Kamu sekt\u00f6rleri, Petrol ve Gaz, E\u011fitim ve benzeri sekt\u00f6rlere hakimdir.  <\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Tahmine dayal\u0131 analiz nas\u0131l \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r?<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tahmine dayal\u0131 analitik, istatistik biliminden kaynaklan\u0131r ve \u00f6z\u00fcnde, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir veri k\u00fcmesindeki belirli de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na belirli bir sonu\u00e7 vermeyi i\u00e7erir. Bu sonu\u00e7, gelecekte belirli bir olay\u0131n meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tahmine dayal\u0131 analitikte kullan\u0131lan iki ana istatistiksel modelleme yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 vard\u0131r: S\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma modelleri ve regresyon modelleri.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>1. S\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma modelleri<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">S\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma y\u00f6ntemi karar a\u011fa\u00e7lar\u0131, do\u011frusal programlama, sinir a\u011f\u0131 ve istatistik gibi matematiksel tekniklerden yararlan\u0131r. \u0130\u00e7in. \u00d6rne\u011fin, bir \u00fcyenin belirli kriterlere g\u00f6re \u015firkette kalma veya bir zaman \u00e7izelgesi i\u00e7inde ayr\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 size s\u00f6yleyecektir.  <\/span><\/p>\n<h3>2. Regresyon modelleri<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Regresyon modelleri, ikili verilerin aksine devam eden verileri kullanacak ger\u00e7ek bir say\u0131y\u0131 tahmin edecektir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, bir hastan\u0131n kalp krizi ge\u00e7irme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (ikili de\u011fi\u015fken) her ek BMI de\u011feriyle (s\u00fcrekli de\u011fi\u015fken) nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in bir lojistik regresyon kullan\u0131labilir.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Tahmine dayal\u0131 analiz Art\u0131lar\u0131<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">\n<h4>Doland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tahmine Dayal\u0131 Analitik, siber g\u00fcvenlik i\u00e7in bir nimettir. Bu teknikleri kullanarak doland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131, tehditleri vb. tespit edebilirler.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">\n<h4>Optimizasyon<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tahmine dayal\u0131 analitik, m\u00fc\u015fterilerin be\u011fenilerini ve be\u011fenmediklerini belirlemeye ve b\u00f6ylece sat\u0131n alma modellerini tan\u0131maya ve pazarlama stratejilerini optimize etmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">\n<h4>Karar verme<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tahmine dayal\u0131 analitikte kullan\u0131lan veri modellerine dayal\u0131 olarak kredi verilmesi, sigorta taleplerinin kabul edilmesi vb. yap\u0131labilir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">\n<h4>Operasyonlar<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">E-ticaret sekt\u00f6rleri envanter y\u00f6netimi konusunda kararlar alabilir. Petrol ve gaz end\u00fcstrileri, tahmine dayal\u0131 analiti\u011fe dayal\u0131 olarak ekipman bak\u0131m planlar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin edebilir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Tahmine dayal\u0131 analiz Eksiler<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">\n<h4><strong>\u0130nsan fakt\u00f6rleri<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, Tahmine Dayal\u0131 Analitik modellerinin\/algoritmalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri tahmin ederken duygular\u0131, ruh hallerini, ili\u015fkileri vb. dikkate almad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etmektedir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">\n<h4>Zaman<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tahmine Dayal\u0131 Analitik modellerinin zaman i\u00e7inde revize edilmesi gerekir. \u0130nsanlar zaman i\u00e7inde de\u011fi\u015fir. Zaman\u0131n bir noktas\u0131nda ge\u00e7erli olan bir model daha sonra kullan\u0131\u015fl\u0131 olmayabilir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">\n<h4><strong>Maliyet<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kestirimci analiti\u011fi uygulamak kaynaklar, ara\u00e7lar ve zaman a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan maliyetlidir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">\n<h4>Gizlilik ve G\u00fcvenlik<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tahmine Dayal\u0131 Analitik verilerle ilgilenir. Bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda veriyi depolamak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir zorluktur. Veriler ayr\u0131ca kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n korunmas\u0131 gereken ki\u015fisel bilgilerini vb. i\u00e7erebilir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Tahmine dayal\u0131 analize daha derin bir bak\u0131\u015f<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Telefonunuzun t\u00fcm konu\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 dinledi\u011fini hi\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcn\u00fcz m\u00fc? Muhtemelen bu komploya inanan en az bir arkada\u015f\u0131n\u0131z vard\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc onlar bir \u015fey hakk\u0131nda konu\u015fmu\u015f ya da sadece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015flerdir. Sonra da tam olarak o \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn ya da en az\u0131ndan onunla ilgili bir \u015feyin reklam\u0131n\u0131 almaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar.  <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Di\u011fer pek \u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tahmine dayal\u0131 analiz kullan\u0131yor. Doktorlar\u0131n do\u011fru te\u015fhis koymalar\u0131na veya belirli ko\u015fullara sahip ki\u015filer i\u00e7in tedavilerin sonucunu belirlemelerine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda acil servis bekleme s\u00fcrelerinin y\u00fczde 15&#8217;e kadar azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmu\u015ftur.  <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.questionpro.com\/blog\/retail-audit-what-it-is-types-tips\/\">Perakende denetimi<\/a> ile hangi stokun daha fazla sat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hangilerinin daha fazla stoklanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini do\u011fru bir \u015fekilde tahmin ederek <a href=\"https:\/\/www.questionpro.com\/blog\/retail-audit-what-it-is-types-tips\/\">perakende<\/a> piyasas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. Tahmine dayal\u0131 analiz, bankac\u0131l\u0131k, \u00fcretim, toplu ta\u015f\u0131ma ve siber g\u00fcvenlik gibi di\u011fer alanlarda da b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7ramalar yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u015eimdi, bu her \u015feyin g\u00fcne\u015f \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve g\u00f6kku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve d\u00fcnyadaki a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Son zamanlarda veri toplaman\u0131n sizin ve benim gibi insanlar\u0131 ne kadar hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair pek \u00e7ok vaka ya\u015fand\u0131. \u015eirketlerin ki\u015fisel hayatlar\u0131m\u0131za s\u0131zmas\u0131, Facebook ve Cambridge Analytica gibi \u015firketlere kar\u015f\u0131 davalar a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na neden oldu.  <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bu insanlar\u0131n yapabilece\u011fi en k\u00f6t\u00fc \u015feyin ne oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilirsiniz. \u015e\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn: Uzun s\u00fcredir tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z ve d\u00fczenli olarak birlikte tak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z ger\u00e7ekten iyi bir arkada\u015f\u0131n\u0131z varsa, belirli durumlarda ne yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmeniz \u00e7ok kolay olacakt\u0131r.  <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bu konuda bir fikir sahibi olmak i\u00e7in birlikte \u00e7ok zaman ge\u00e7irmi\u015f ve pek \u00e7ok deneyimi payla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olman\u0131z gerekir, peki tahmin analizi sizin kim oldu\u011funuzu bile bilmeden ayn\u0131 \u015feyi yapma g\u00fcc\u00fcne nas\u0131l sahip olabilir?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cambridge Analytica gibi \u015firketler kim oldu\u011funuzu, ne yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 ve ne sat\u0131n alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in 5000 veri noktas\u0131na sahip. Bunun \u00fczerine y\u00fckledikleri veriler, reklam yoluyla para kazanma \u00f6rt\u00fcs\u00fc alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan Facebook ve Google gibi \u015firketlerden sat\u0131n al\u0131nmaktad\u0131r. Ger\u00e7ekte \u00fcr\u00fcn, bu teknolojilerin t\u00fcketicileri olan bizleriz.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Her zaman insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 u\u00e7ucu bir \u015fey vard\u0131r ve insanlar bunun bizim i\u00e7in iyi mi yoksa hepimizin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc m\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda tamamen b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Bunun, m\u00fc\u015fteri ortaklar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ederek onlara daha iyi hizmet vermek i\u00e7in tasarlanm\u0131\u015f basit bir ara\u00e7 hakk\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekten k\u00f6t\u00fc bir tablo \u00e7izmek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc biliyorum, ancak buradaki as\u0131l endi\u015fe, bu arac\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in verilerin nas\u0131l topland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011finde yatmaktad\u0131r.  <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc taraf bir \u015firketin t\u00fcm hareketlerinizi ve se\u00e7imlerinizi bildi\u011fini bilmek sizi rahatlat\u0131r m\u0131? Bir sonraki \u015firketin bir sonraki yeni parlak \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc satmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir kuklaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz\u00fc m\u00fc? Peki t\u00fcm bunlar ne anlama geliyor?  <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Basit bir ger\u00e7ek \u015fu ki, bu ate\u015f gibidir, onu nas\u0131l kontrol edece\u011fimizi \u00f6\u011frenebilir ve bir medeniyet olarak ilerleyebilir, pi\u015fmi\u015f yemek yemeyi ve sosyalle\u015fmeyi \u00f6\u011frenebiliriz ya da onu d\u00fcnyay\u0131 y\u00f6neten ve insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00f6lele\u015ftiren kendi kendine \u00f6\u011frenen bir yapay zeka do\u011furan geli\u015fmi\u015f bir medeniyet olmak i\u00e7in kullanabiliriz. Ne olacak?<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Tahmine dayal\u0131 analitik &amp; QuestionPro<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">QuestionPro, Anketler \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak ge\u00e7mi\u015fe y\u00f6nelik i\u00e7g\u00f6r\u00fc kazanmaya ve gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik kararlar almaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olan analizler sa\u011flar. Raporlar, istatistik paketleri, veri filtreleme, \u00e7apraz tablolama, trend analizi, metin analizi vb. gibi m\u00fc\u015fterilerin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fc karar vermesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilecek \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00f6zellikler vard\u0131r!<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a class=\"square-cta secondary-lined-cta\" href=\"https:\/\/www.questionpro.com\/a\/showEntry.do\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>\u00dcCRETSIZ HESAP OLU\u015eTUR<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Yazarlar<\/strong> Shubhada ve Jackson \/ Fahad Ahmed Shaikh<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Her neslin bir okuryazarl\u0131k dili oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenir; e\u011fer bunu biliyorsan\u0131z, o \u00e7a\u011f\u0131n okuryazar\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z; sava\u015f i\u00e7inde bir hayat ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z karanl\u0131k [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":80,"featured_media":711427,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"Tahmine Dayal\u0131 Analiz","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Tahmine dayal\u0131 analiz, gelecekteki olaylar\u0131 veya davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tahmin etmek i\u00e7in verileri kullanan bir metodolojidir. 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