{"id":793174,"date":"2021-05-31T10:45:30","date_gmt":"2021-05-31T17:45:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.questionpro.com\/blog\/delphi-yontemi-nedir\/"},"modified":"2021-05-31T10:45:30","modified_gmt":"2021-05-31T10:45:30","slug":"delphi-yontemi-nedir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.questionpro.com\/blog\/tr\/delphi-yontemi-nedir\/","title":{"rendered":"Delphi Y\u00f6ntemi nedir?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delphi Y\u00f6ntemi 1950&#8217;lerde matematik\u00e7iler Norman Dalkey ve Olaf Hermes taraf\u0131ndan So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde teknolojinin d\u00fcnya \u00fczerindeki etkisini tahmin etmek amac\u0131yla geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Gelecek hakk\u0131nda niteliksel ancak nispeten do\u011fru bilgi ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler elde etmek amac\u0131yla, tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lacak karma\u015f\u0131k bir konu hakk\u0131nda 5 ila 10 uzmandan olu\u015fan bir panele dayanan bir tekniktir. \u0130\u015flevselli\u011fi, farkl\u0131 tahmin olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 veya tahminleri maksimuma indirmektir, yani uzmanlar\u0131n grup g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sayesinde karma\u015f\u0131k bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n sonucunu basitle\u015ftirir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Delphi Y\u00f6nteminde<\/strong> \u00fc\u00e7 grup insan yer al\u0131r. \u0130lk olarak, \u015funlar vard\u0131r  <\/span><b>uzmanlar<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u00f6nceden stratejik ve anonim olarak se\u00e7ilmelidir, kimse kimliklerini bilemez.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Konunun uzmanlar\u0131 olan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc gruba uygulanacak anketleri haz\u0131rlar, da\u011f\u0131t\u0131r, toplar ve \u00f6zetlerler; temsili ve g\u00fcvenilir bir \u00f6rneklem elde etmek i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 yerlerde bulunmalar\u0131 gerekir.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Okumak i\u00e7in: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.questionpro.com\/blog\/qualitative-research-methods\/\">Nitel Ara\u015ft\u0131rma: Tan\u0131m, T\u00fcrler, Y\u00f6ntemler ve \u00d6rnekler.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delphi Y\u00f6ntemini uygulamak i\u00e7in ad\u0131mlar<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delphi y\u00f6ntemi s\u00fcreci genel olarak d\u00f6rt ad\u0131mda tan\u0131mlanmaktad\u0131r:<\/span><\/h3>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hedeflerin tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Uzmanlar\u0131n se\u00e7imi<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Anketlerin detayland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delphi y\u00f6nteminin \u00f6zellikleri<\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Anonim uzmanlar, uzmanlar birbirlerini tan\u0131yabilir ancak isti\u015farenin fikirlerine dayanan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri tan\u0131mlayamazlar.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yineleme ve kontroll\u00fc geri bildirim: ayn\u0131 anketi birka\u00e7 kez sunun.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Grubun yan\u0131tlar\u0131 istatistiksel bir \u015fekilde; bilgi, elde edilen mutabakat derecesine g\u00f6re uzmanlar\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Uzmanlar panelinde heterojenlik vard\u0131r, yani belirli faaliyet alanlar\u0131ndan uzmanlar kat\u0131labilir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delphi y\u00f6nteminin avantajlar\u0131 ve dezavantajlar\u0131<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delphi tekni\u011fini uygulaman\u0131n faydalar\u0131ndan baz\u0131lar\u0131 \u015funlard\u0131r:<\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Karma\u015f\u0131k konularda farkl\u0131 analizler ve bilgiler sa\u011flar.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Son derece objektif bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce yap\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fur.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Uzmanlara dayal\u0131 kararlar\u0131n etkili olmas\u0131 muhtemeldir.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Karar vermek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00e7e\u015fitli se\u00e7eneklere sahip olmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Anonim oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in uzmanlar aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00f6nler ve yarat\u0131c\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 te\u015fvik eder.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Uzman, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne tamamen dahil olur ve uygulamay\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Her \u015feyde oldu\u011fu gibi, bu y\u00f6ntemin de dezavantajlar\u0131 vard\u0131r:<\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u0130stenilen sonucu elde etmek i\u00e7in iki kez \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7ilmesi gerekti\u011finden uzun ve s\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7tir.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Uzmanlar\u0131n ve di\u011fer malzemelerin m\u00fcdahalesini gerektirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in maliyetli bir y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cevaplar\u0131n aranmas\u0131n\u0131 ve al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 ekonomik hale getirmek i\u00e7in iyi bir ileti\u015fime sahip olmak gerekir.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kriterler \u00f6zneldir ve s\u0131kl\u0131kla etkilenmektedir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Okumak i\u00e7in: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.questionpro.com\/blog\/thurstone-scale\/\">Thurstone \u00d6l\u00e7e\u011fi: Tan\u0131m, \u00d6rneklerle Anket Sorular\u0131<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delphi Y\u00f6nteminin Kullan\u0131m Alanlar\u0131<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delphi y\u00f6nteminin kullan\u0131m alanlar\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00e7e\u015fitlidir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu bilgiler uzmanlar\u0131n deneyim ve bilgilerinden gelmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Geri bildirim oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n farkl\u0131 bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na dayal\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeleri ve daha iyi bir anlay\u0131\u015fa sahip olmalar\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr; bu da kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 bir analizin gerekli oldu\u011fu durumlarda anlamlar ve anla\u015fmalar olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in gerekli olabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delphi y\u00f6ntemi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z hareket etmenizi sa\u011flar ve dinamiklerini ara\u015ft\u0131rma hedeflerine uyarlar.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Delphi y\u00f6ntemi stratejik kararlar alman\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir grup uzman\u0131n objektif veya deneyime dayal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, tek bir bireyin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne k\u0131yasla her zaman daha kaliteli olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, bir unsurun gelecekteki geli\u015fimini ara\u015ft\u0131rma teknikleri yoluyla belirlemek i\u00e7in yard\u0131m istiyorsak, Delphi Y\u00f6ntemi ula\u015fmam\u0131z gereken sistemdir. Bir \u015firket veya kurulu\u015f i\u00e7in bu, pazar analizi ve tahminleri yapman\u0131n harika bir yoludur. \u015eirketinizin ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu her \u015feyi uzmanlardan \u00f6\u011frenin. QuestioPro&#8217;da size yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a class=\"square-cta secondary-lined-cta\" href=\"https:\/\/www.questionpro.com\/a\/showEntry.do\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>\u00dccretsiz kaydolun ve \u015firketinizi bir \u00fcst seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131n.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Delphi Y\u00f6ntemi 1950&#8217;lerde matematik\u00e7iler Norman Dalkey ve Olaf Hermes taraf\u0131ndan So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde teknolojinin d\u00fcnya \u00fczerindeki etkisini tahmin etmek amac\u0131yla [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":703897,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1114],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Delphi Y\u00f6ntemi: Nedir, \u00d6rnekler ve Avantajlar\u0131 | QuestionPro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Delphi Y\u00f6ntemi 1950&#039;lerde matematik\u00e7iler Norman Dalkey ve Olaf Hermes taraf\u0131ndan So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde teknolojinin d\u00fcnya \u00fczerindeki etkisini tahmin etmek\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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