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AIR Offsite Scenario Planning Survey

Thanks for participating in AIR's offsite, October 17-19, 2016. Please help us finish the scenario planning by completing this survey before January 27, 2017.

* Please rank (1-4) the following in order of likelihood.
October 10, 2025: one year after a magnitude 8.0 earthquake occurred just outside Beijing, you are writing the executive summary of a report on its aftermath

• “Data Saves the Day” – The 8.0 earthquake was well predicted by the scientific community, and AIR’s products were able to give good estimates of where the damage would be greatest. People were able to mitigate potential losses by updating building codes. Damage survey for the event was done via drone, and there were numerous sensors around the area to give an unprecedented level of data. There were financial hedges due to the adoption of peer-to-peer insurance.
• “I Hate it When That Happens” – 20T USD in economic losses, at least 20B USD in insured losses, but there was no compulsory insurance. Due to the lack of reliance on technology since the major Internet outage, the full extent of the quake’s impact is still not known, even one year later, and may never fully be known.
• “We Never Saw It Coming” – There were massive casualties as the earthquake occurred during a peak hour. The supply chain was disrupted and caused worldwide scarcity. Disease outbreaks began near the epicenter and have begun to spread worldwide.
• “A Year After Tomorrow” – Donald Trump is in the middle of his third term as president (after repealing the 22nd amendment). This has caused American isolationism – meaning the US reinsurers suffer very little loss from this event. However, in the past year, it has come to light that the earthquake may not have been natural – there is rampant speculation that it may have been a terror attack. China is at the brink of revolution and the world is at the brink of WWIII.

* Please rank (1-4) the following in order of likelihood:
Giving key highlights of the 2026 software product suite to a client

• Global Asset Network: The notion of the BIN has exploded to the point where every asset in the world – every building, be it residential or commercial, every car, and every content within every building – is categorized and cataloged in the cloud, including having a catastrophe loss value for every natural peril to which it is exposed quantified and assigned. No more data transfer, everything is centralized. No more Insurance, Reinsurance, All market segments combined.
• AI takes over Cat modeling: Technology is at its peak, Drones used for surveys. Technology is at its peak. Real time IOT. Cat analyst role diminishes due to Machine Learning in the products, everything real-time including ALERT. Most of the company is composed of computer scientists. Product suite is based of widgets, subscribed/unsubscribed using shopping cart as and when need. All these lead to global catalogs undergoing updates real time and available.
• Lose Identity: In light of Google acquiring RMS, Verisk prunes cat modeling business and we partner with another giant Amazon/Apple and cease to exist.
• Future to Back: Internet goes dark, global economy at its boom, population exploding with various perils added. In order to meet Risk Managers demands for access to cloud, Clasic2/Catrader come back to life and shipped using Drones to all client base including Artic/Antarctica.

* Please rank (1-4) the following in order of likelihood:
The cover of The Economist magazine on 1 January 2026

• New Miami/New Shanghai: due to climate change, sea levels rise around the world, rendering key coastal cities like Miami and Shanghai uninhabitable. However, this becomes a major opportunity for some as new cities spring up on the new coastline, driving economic growth.
• End of Work as We Know It: due to increasing automation and AI, significant portions of the population in developed countries are displaced from their jobs. This creates, initially, significant social disruption and challenges governments to address the issue.
• What’s a driver’s license: autonomous vehicles become commonplace, and no one drives any longer.
• Where did wealth go? Due to internet being down, there is a major financial meltdown and economy goes into major depression, wiping out significant portion of wealth.

* Please rank (1-4) the following in order of likelihood:
Giving the Research Roadmap presentation at 2026 AIR Executive Summit

• Tool Provider ala OASIS (Google): We are in a world where google acquires OASIS and AIR becomes a tool provider for hazard, risk scores, stochastic & deterministic modeled results and exposure data. Google redefines the usage of software platforms and AIR focuses on its core competencies (i.e., data and science) and becomes a leading provider of tools that aid underwriting and portfolio accumulations for all LOB’s on the single platform. Customers have access to these tools through all kinds of devices at their fingertips.
• It’s all about cyber, pandemic: Increased concentration of population around urban areas and increase in ‘connected smart world’, increases cyber and pandemic risk folds. Insurance companies are worried about analyzing and requiring new tools to manage these risks than other LOB’s.
• Government decides: Insurance is completely managed and regulated by government. Insurance industry is redefined. AIR becomes a preferred vendor for government. Government uses AIR products to help manage and regulate risk (all LOB’s). AIR becomes the advocate and plays a key role in regulations at state and country level.
• Data is KING: Smart world, IoT enables availability of lot more data (buildings, auto, people etc) and analytics (both decision and predictive) become more important and relevant than what they are today. More real time analytics.

* Please rank (1-4) the following in order of likelihood:
A meeting with a large corporation’s risk manager on September 1, 2025 on her plans for the coming year

• Cyber/IoT/AI: Corporations have embraced merging technologies of the future and AI is at the center of many of their operations. While technology has helped to drive efficiency their operations are vulnerable to external cyber-attacks. Cyber terrorism has taken on a whole new dimension as cyber criminals try to break into such systems to cause physical harm to corporations and the general economy. Risk managers spend more time thinking about how to minimize such risks
• Interconnected World: Large corporations have vast, global footprints and their operations are more dependent on similar corporations. They are serving customers across multiple geographies. This means each company’s operation is a complex network which makes them vulnerable to failures on the network. Analytics drive decision making on how to keep the network operate smoothly.
• Liability/Reputation Risks: With increasing automation, companies are exposed to a new class of liabilities and unknown sources of reputation risks. The concept of liability/reputation insurance has to morph to meet the needs of the future because our risk manager is eager to buy custom insurance solutions to protect business,
• Risk Concentration: The world population has significantly increased, increasing levels of migration towards urbans areas continues. Corporations have larger pools of customers, employees, business partners in such urban centers. When such an urban center is impacted it exposes them to higher levels of risk and there is a need to understand and manage this risk.

Please create one or more scenario narratives based on your selections above.

What are the key implications of your scenario to 1) the insurance industry

2) our clients

3) our competitors

4) technology

How should AIR respond to your scenario?

What opportunities and threats would you face?

What strategies would you implement, and how would it change your current approach?

What signposts or leading indicators would alert you?

What would be needed to perform successfully in this environment?

What would be the impact on each part of our organization?

On our customers?

On our competitors?

What do you need to do today to prepare?