Environmental Scientists; International Environmen

Sample Survey

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Description
of Research Project: Evaluating the Effectiveness of International
Environmental Agreements

Some colleagues and I are engaged
in a long-term research project in which we are seeking to evaluate the
effectiveness of a large number of International Environmental Agreements
(IEAs). Assessing the
effectiveness of these IEAs is an important task from a practical perspective,
since (i) so-called “second and third generation” environmental problems are
characterized by regional or global environmental consequences, and (ii) the
international community has responded to these problems by creating more than
100 IEAs. Assessing the
effectiveness of IEAs is also important from a scholarly perspective in that
such assessments allow us to test hypotheses about the design of institutions,
the implementation of policy tools, and the behavior of nations in the
international arena.

In order to realize the practical and
scholarly benefits described above, we have developed a theoretical framework
predicting the likely effectiveness of IEAs as a function of (i) the
institutional characteristics of the IEAs, (ii) the characteristics of the
target population, (iii) the characteristics of nation states, and (iv) the
characteristics of the environmental problems being addressed.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> I am seeking your assistance as an
environmental scientist in helping us assess the characteristics of various
environmental problems. Specifically,
the attached survey asks you to rank various environmental problems on a seven
point scale from low (1) to high (7) on the extent to which these problems are
characterized by complexity and scientific uncertainty.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> In addition, we ask you to adjust for
regional differences with these environmental problems, and rank your
professional expertise in each area.
Each of these characteristics is described in detail below.style="mso-spacerun: yes">

Problem Complexity

The characteristic of problem
complexity refers to underlying causal processes generating the environmental
problem. For our purposes, problem
complexity has two dimensions:

style='font-family:Symbol'>·
The number of causes/sources of the environmental
problem. By sources or causes of environmental problems, we mean the
physical, chemical, biological, or behavioral processes that produce these
problems. By contrast, when we
speak of the sources of causes of environmental problems, we do not
mean the physical entities responsible for the environmental problems.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> To give an example, the vast majority
of atmospheric sulfur dioxide pollution comes from the combustion of coal in
power plants and smelters. Thus,
there are few causes/sources of this environmental problem, regardless of
whether there are 100 or 100,000,000 power plants and smelters releasing sulfur
dioxide. Some environmental
problems stem from a small number of sources or causes; e.g., most oil
pollution at sea comes from one of two causes (marine transport and offshore
production). Other environmental
problems have a large number of sources or causes; e.g., non-point source water
pollution. Environmental problems
with a large number of sources or causes are more complex than those with a
small number of sources or causes.

style='font-family:Symbol'>·
The length of the causal chain from cause to
effect. style='font-weight:normal'>Short causal chains between cause and effect make it
easier to understand environmental problems, easier to design interventions to
address these problems, and easier to evaluate the success of these
interventions. Some environmental
problems have short causal chains; e.g., the relationship between herbicide
spills and fish kills in a river.
Other environmental problems have longer causal chains; e.g., the
relationship between CFC emissions and stratospheric ozone depletion.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Environmental problems with long causal
chains are more complex than those with shorter causal chains.

Problem Uncertainty

The characteristic of problem
uncertainty refers to scientific/expert uncertainty regarding the causes style='font-weight:normal;font-style:normal'>of environmental problems and/or
the severity of environmental problems. For our purposes, problem
uncertainty has two dimensions:

style='font-family:Symbol'>·
Theoretical uncertainty. Theoretical uncertainty
refers to uncertainty regarding the causes, effects, and causal processes
underlying environmental problems.
Some environmental problems have low levels of theoretical uncertainty;
e.g., we understand quite well the causes of acid deposition and the processes
by which SO₂ and NO_x are transformed into sulfuric and
nitric acid in the atmosphere. We
also understand quite well the rather complex process by which CFCs degrade
stratospheric O₃. Some
environmental problems have high levels of theoretical complexity; e.g., we do
not understand well interactions that take place between multiple chemical
contaminants and the processes by which these interactions increase or decrease
the toxicity of the chemicals.

style='font-family:Symbol'>·
Empirical Uncertainty. Empirical uncertainty
refers to uncertainty regarding the magnitude or severity of the environmental
problem. Some environmental
problems have relatively low levels of empirical uncertainty; e.g., the human
health risks posed by lead exposure in the U.S. Other environmental problems have high levels of empirical
uncertainty; e.g., the rate of extinction for many endangered species, the
magnitude of sea level rise associated with climate change.style="mso-spacerun: yes">

Regional Differences
Adjustment: Because there may be
regional differences in the # of Causes, Causal Chain, and the Theoretical
& Empirical Uncertainty of a problem, we have allotted for a short
sub-section in each section that allows for a regional adjustment. Please give
each region on a scale of -x to +x that indicates how each environmental
category should be adjusted for a particular region. A score of -3 would indicate that we should subtract 3 from
the problem scores above, making a problem less uncertain, less complex, or
have less causes. A score of +3
would indicate that a problem is more uncertain, more complex, or have more
causes.

Professional Expertise:style='font-weight:normal'> We
realize that your expertise may vary among different environmental
problems. Thus, the last column
asks for your professional expertise in each area. A score of 1 would be a low level of expertise, while a score
of 7 would represent a high level of professional expertise.
style='mso-special-character:line-break;page-break-before:always'>

Measuring
the Complexity and Uncertainty of Environmental Problems

The survey lists a large number of
environmental problems addressed by international environmental
agreements. Please score each of
these environmental problems with respect to the four dimensions of complexity and
uncertainty described below. Score
these environmental problems using a seven-point scale where 1 equals the
lowest levels of complexity/uncertainty and 7 equals the highest levels of
complexity/uncertainty. Please
enter these scores into the table directly adjacent to the list of
environmental problems. If you are
unable to score any problem characteristic, simply enter an “X” in the
corresponding box in the table.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Each row of the table is associated
with a single environmental problem.
Each column of the table is associated with a particular problem
characteristic: i.e.,

“# Causes” refers to problem complexity stemming from
the number of causes of the environmental problem

“Causal Chain” refers to problem complexity stemming
from the length of the chain from cause to environmental effect for each
problem

“T. Uncertainty” refers to theoretical uncertainty
regarding the problem

“E. Uncertainty” refers to empirical uncertainty
regarding the problem

“P. Expertise” refers to your professional expertise
in each area

Thus, each row in the table will
contain four scores representing these four characteristics of each
environmental problem, and one score for your expertise in that area.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> The Regional Adjustment rows allow you
to add an additional adjustment to each problem category by region.

In order to generate testable
hypotheses about the effectiveness of IEAs, our theoretical framework employs
three characteristics of environmental problems: complexity, uncertainty, and
malignancy. While these are not
the only important characteristics of environmental problems, our survey asks
you, as environmental scientists, about only two characteristics.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> We are currently surveying
environmental economists regarding the political-economic characteristics of
environmental problems. Moreover,
we realize that uncertainty and complexity are not independent.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> With environmental problems, as with
most things, complexity begets uncertainty, and vice versa.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Complexity and uncertainty are not
identical, however, for we can find many examples of environmental problems
that display high complexity but relatively low uncertainty.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> To the maximum degree possible, then,
we ask you to evaluate these two characteristics of environmental problems
independently.

Freshwater Quality & PollutionReview of Instructions

	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
Industrial (Chemical, Sewage, Detergent and other End of Pipe) Pollution of Rivers and Lakes	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Nutrient/Sediment Pollution of Rivers and Lakes	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Oil/Hydrocarbon Pollution of Rivers and Lakes	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Atmospheric Deposition in Rivers and Lakes	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Regional Adjustment for Freshwater Quality & PollutionReview of Instructions

	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
North America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Europe	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Central & South America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Africa	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Asia	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Seawater Quality and Pollution: General

	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
Industrial (Chemical, Sewage, Detergent, & End of the Pipe) Pollution of Coastal Ocean	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Nutrient/Sediment Pollution of Coastal Ocean	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Oil/Hydrocarbon Pollution of Coastal Ocean	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Atmospheric Deposition of Coastal Ocean	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Industrial Pollution of Coastal Embayments	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Nutrient/Sediment Pollution of Coastal Embayments	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Oil/Hydrocarbon Pollution of Coastal Embayments	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Atmospheric Deposition of Coastal Embayments	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Industrial Pollution of Seas	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Nutrient/Sediment Pollution of Seas	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
Oil/Hydrocarbon Pollution of Seas	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Atmospheric Deposition of Seas	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Industrial Pollution of Oceans	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Nutrient/Sediment Pollution of Oceans	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Oil/Hydrocarbon Pollution of Oceans	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Atmospheric Deposition of Oceans	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Regional Adjustment for Seawater Quality & Pollution

	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
North America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Europe	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Central & South America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Africa	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Asia	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Air Pollution

	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
SOx Pollution	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

NOx Pollution	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Particulate Pollution	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

VOC Pollution	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Heavy Metal Pollution	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Persistent Organic Pollutants	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Air Pollution from Ozone Depleting Substances	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Global Warming / Greenhouse Gas Pollution	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Regional Adjustment for Air Pollution

	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
North America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Europe	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Central & South America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Africa	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Asia	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Land Quality / Preservation

	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
Land Degradation from Agriculture	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Land Degradation from Development	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Pest Control / Locusts	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Prevention of Desertification	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Regional Adjustment for Land Quality / Preservation

	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
North America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Europe	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Central & South America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Africa	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Asia	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Protection of Species

	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
Protection of Land Animals	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Protection of Marine Animals	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Protection of Migratory Species (Land)	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Protection of Migratory Species (Sea)	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Loss of Wildlife Habitat (Land)	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Loss of Wildlife Habitat (Marine)	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Protection of Plant Species	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Regional Adjustment for Protection of Species

	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
North America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Europe	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Central & South America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Africa	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Asia	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Protection of Fish Stocks & Overharvesting

	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
Over-harvesting of Fish in Oceans	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Over-harvesting of Fish in International Rivers and Lakes	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Over-harvesting of Fish in Coastal Ocean	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Over-harvesting of Fish in Seas	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Over-harvesting of Fish in Embayments	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Regional Adjustment for Protection of Fish Stocks & Overharvesting

	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
North America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Europe	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Central & South America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Africa	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Asia	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Hazardous Substances

	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
Hazardous Substances Pollution via Road Transportation (including accidents)	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Hazardous Substances Pollution via Water Transportation (including accidents)	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Hazardous Substances Pollution via Hazardous Waste Disposal	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Nuclear Waste Pollution via Nuclear Waste Disposal	# of Causes	Length of Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Regional Adjustment for Hazardous Substances

	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise
North America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Europe	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Central & South America	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Africa	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

Asia	# of Causes	Causal Chain	Theoretical Uncertainty	Empirical Uncertainty	Professional Expertise

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