Holiday shopping trends describe how consumers plan, budget for, and complete their seasonal purchases, from Thanksgiving weekend through the final days before Christmas. Retailers track these trends every year because even small shifts in timing or channel preference can affect inventory, staffing, and marketing decisions.
Consumer behavior during this stretch rarely stays flat year over year. Inflation, supply chain conditions, and shifting shopping habits all move the numbers, which is why relying on last year’s data alone is risky for planning this year’s season.
This guide covers what current national survey data shows about holiday shopping behavior and how retailers can run their own research to track trends specific to their own customers.
What do national surveys show about recent holiday shopping trends?
Recent national survey data shows that holiday spending remains high despite ongoing economic uncertainty, with online and Black Friday shopping continuing to dominate consumer behavior. According to the National Retail Federation’s annual holiday consumer survey, 91% of US consumers planned to celebrate winter holidays in 2025, with average per-person spending reaching $890.49, the second-highest figure in the survey’s 23-year history.
Of that total spending, the majority goes toward gifts for family and friends, with the remainder covering food, decorations, and other seasonal items. Black Friday remains the single most popular shopping day, both in-store and online, with Cyber Monday close behind as the top day specifically for online purchases.
How has holiday shopping behavior shifted in recent years?
Holiday shopping behavior has shifted toward earlier planning, heavier online activity, and more deal-seeking behavior compared to years past. Consumers increasingly spread purchases across a longer window rather than concentrating spending in the final weeks before Christmas, often to manage budgets and avoid shipping delays.
Online channels continue to draw the largest share of shopping activity, though physical retail formats such as supermarkets, department stores, and discount stores still capture significant traffic during Thanksgiving weekend specifically. Secondhand and value-focused gifting has also grown as consumers weigh higher prices against fixed holiday budgets.
Why should retailers run their own holiday shopping surveys?
Retailers should run their own holiday shopping surveys because national data describes the average consumer, not necessarily the customers a specific business actually serves. A retailer’s own audience may skip a national trend entirely or lean into it more heavily, and only direct research reveals which is true.
Running proprietary research also allows a retailer to test messaging, promotional timing, and channel preferences specific to their own customer base before finalizing a holiday marketing plan.
What should a holiday shopping survey ask?
A holiday shopping survey should cover budget, timing, channel preference, and the factors most likely to influence a purchase decision this season. Useful areas to include are:
- Planned spending.
Ask for an approximate budget range rather than an exact figure, since most respondents estimate loosely.
- Shopping timing.
Ask whether shopping typically starts before, during, or after Thanksgiving weekend.
- Channel preference.
Ask whether purchases are expected to happen mostly online, in-store, or a mix of both.
- Deal sensitivity.
Ask how much a discount or promotion influences the decision to buy from a specific retailer.
- Gift categories.
Ask which product categories are most likely to receive holiday spending this year.
How can retailers keep holiday survey data accurate?
Holiday surveys are especially vulnerable to low-quality or fraudulent responses, since seasonal research often runs at higher volume and faster turnaround than typical studies. Multi-method behavioral fraud detection, including IP address screening, digital fingerprinting, bot detection, and mouse movement tracking on desktop devices, helps filter out unreliable responses before they skew results.
Reporting a clear margin of error alongside the results also keeps the data honest about its own limitations, especially for smaller sample sizes.
How does QuestionPro support holiday and seasonal retail research?
QuestionPro survey software includes built-in fraud detection and data quality controls that help retailers run seasonal research with confidence, even during high-volume periods like the holiday shopping season.
Combined with QuestionPro Audience for reaching a representative consumer panel, retailers can benchmark their own customers against broader national trends rather than relying on national averages alone.
National trends are a starting point, not a strategy
Holiday shopping trends from national surveys are useful for understanding the broader environment retailers are operating in this season. They are not a substitute for knowing how a retailer’s own customers actually plan to shop.
The retailers that get the most value from holiday season data are the ones who pair national benchmarks with their own direct research, rather than assuming the average applies to their specific audience.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
According to NRF’s 2025 survey, US consumers planned to spend an average of $890.49 per person on gifts and seasonal items, the second-highest figure recorded in the survey’s 23-year history.
Yes. Black Friday remains the top shopping day for both in-store and online purchases, with Cyber Monday following closely behind as the leading day specifically for online shopping activity.
Many consumers now begin holiday shopping well before Thanksgiving to spread out spending and avoid shipping delays, a shift that has become more pronounced over the past several years.
National surveys reflect an average across the entire US consumer base, which may not match a retailer’s specific customer demographics, price point, or product category, making direct customer research more reliable for planning.
The biggest risk is collecting low-quality or fraudulent responses due to high survey volume and quick turnaround, which is why fraud detection measures matter more during peak seasonal research periods than at other times of year.
